The gulf between Emanuel's and Garcia's most supportive neighborhoods | Bleader

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

The gulf between Emanuel's and Garcia's most supportive neighborhoods

Posted By on 03.03.15 at 11:00 AM

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Governor Bruce Rauner and Mayor Rahm Emanuel at the memorial service for Ernie Banks on January 31 in the Fourth Presbyterian Church. The churchs gallery has served as a polling place, and it's been the best in the city for both Rauner and Emanuel.
  • Michael Schmidt/Sun-Times
  • Governor Bruce Rauner and Mayor Rahm Emanuel at the memorial service for Ernie Banks on January 31 at Fourth Presbyterian Church. The church's gallery has served as a polling place, and it's been the best in the city for both Rauner and Emanuel.
"I'm honored that so many hardworking Chicagoans have put their trust in me," Rahm Emanuel said on his website before last Tuesday's election.

But it's the rich and white who trust him most, the results indicated. The mayor's best vote totals citywide were 73 percent in the 42nd Ward (the Loop, River North, the Gold Coast); 72 percent in the 43rd (Lincoln Park); and 64 percent in both the 44th (Lakeview) and the Second (Near North Side).

In recent census estimates (2008-'12), these neighborhoods ranged from 66 percent white (the Loop) to 86 percent white (Lincoln Park and Lakeview). And here are their per capita incomes, with their rankings among Chicago's 77 community areas:

Near North Side: $89,000 (first)
Lincoln Park: $72,000 (second)
Loop: $66,000 (third)
Lakeview: $60,000 (fourth)

This is the mayor's turf—within a mile or so of the lakefront, from downtown north, up to about Uptown, where incomes, and his support, begin to fall.

Jesus "Chuy" Garcia dominated on the southwest side. He got 70 percent in his home ward, the 22nd (South Lawndale), and 67 percent in the 12th (Brighton Park and McKinley Park).

South Lawndale was 84 percent Latino in 2008-'12; Brighton Park and McKinley Park were 84 percent and 62 percent Latino respectively. Their per capita incomes and rankings:

McKinley Park: $17,000 (51st)
Brighton Park: $13,000 (67th)
South Lawndale: $10,000 (76th)

The per capita incomes in Emanuel's territory are four to nine times what they are in Garcia's territory.

The Chicago Department of Public Health, which compiled the income data for the years 2008-'12, also calculates a "hardship" index for community areas, based on six factors: poverty, unemployment, per capita income, crowded housing, percent of residents 25 and older without a high school diploma, and "dependency"—percent of residents under 18 or over 64. The hardship index ranges from 1 to 100, with 1 representing the least hardship. Here are the hardship indexes for these seven neighborhoods for 2008-'12, and their rankings among the 77 community areas:

Emanuel's neighborhoods:

Near North Side: 1 (first)
Lincoln Park: 2 (second)
Loop: 3 (third)
Lakeview: 5 (fourth)

Garcia's neighborhoods:

McKinley Park: 61 (48th)
Brighton Park: 84 (66th)
South Lawndale: 96 (75th)

Emanuel got 46 percent of the vote citywide, Garcia 34 percent. Turnout was only 34 percent, and even lower than that both in Emanuel's top wards (ranging from 27 to 33 percent) and in Garcia's (27 to 28 percent). The runoff election is April 7.

In the governor's race last November, Republican Bruce Rauner captured one of Chicago's 50 wards, the 42nd—the ward that three months later did best for Emanuel. I wrote in November that the Magnificent Milers of the 34th precinct of the 42nd Ward voted 65 percent for Rauner, his best percentage in the city's 2,069 precincts. Last Tuesday, the Mag Milers returned to their polling place in the grand Fourth Presbyterian Church at Michigan and Chestnut, and 85 percent of them put their trust in Emanuel. That tied for Emanuel's best precinct citywide; he also got 85 percent in two other 42nd Ward precincts.

The mayor did far better in those precincts than in his own, in the northwest corner of Lakeview: he got just 58 percent in his home precinct in the 47th Ward. Garcia got 84 percent in his home precinct.

A few days before the election, President Obama, whose home is in Kenwood, said in a commercial for his former chief of staff: "If you want a mayor . . . who fights night and day for a city we love, then I hope you'll join me. Vote for Rahm Emanuel on Tuesday, February 24th."

The president is always hoping. But only 39 percent of his fellow residents in the 33rd precinct of the Fourth Ward took him up on the suggestion.

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