Election picks that can't miss, based on years of research and random guesswork | Bleader

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election picks that can't miss, based on years of research and random guesswork

Posted By on 11.06.12 at 07:30 AM

And the winner is ... not this guy. But thank you for playing.
  • EMMANUEL DUNAND/Getty Images
  • And the winner is . . . not this guy. But thank you for playing.
Like everyone else who's been scouring Nate Silver's latest posts, I find myself thinking I've got a handle on this election.

Sure, the polls are close, I live in a Democratic bubble, and I turn the sound off every time a political ad comes on the tube during a break in the game. On the other hand, I've spent years observing the robust governing process in the president's hometown, and I still know a few Republicans, some of whom aren't even related to me.

So here's my hunch about where this country stands at this critical moment: we're not completely hosed yet, so people in Washington, quit doing dumb shit with our rights and our money.

Before I unveil further insights, be forewarned: if my record in sports is any indication, anybody I designate a winner will have a greater propensity to fumble at the goal line.

Without further ado, here's my best set of predictions about how the 2012 election will go down:

COOK COUNTY OFFICES: Democrats over whoever volunteered at the last minute to run for the GOP. I could point out that the Cook County Republican Party website still tells us that candidate information will be "coming soon." Instead, I'll note that it doesn't matter.

SECOND CONGRESSIONAL: Jesse Jackson Jr. over various and sundry Republican and independent candidates: Junior's got 99 problems but this election ain't one.

EIGHTH CONGRESSIONAL: Tammy Duckworth (D) over Joe Walsh (R). Both sides would LOVE this trophy, but Duckworth appears to be winning over the voters by spending gazillions on negative ads and not saying stupid-ass things.

TENTH CONGRESSIONAL: Robert Dold (R) over Brad Schneider (D): In a moderately conservative north shore district, Dold is the sort of Republican who's gone against the GOP grain on a couple of issues no one remembers—which is more than you can say about plenty of Democrats during the last few years.

ELEVENTH CONGRESSIONAL: Bill Foster (D) over Judy Biggert (R): Those late-hour robocalls from Bill Clinton will surely do the trick.

TENTH STATE HOUSE DISTRICT: Lance Tyson (SOMETHING OR OTHER) over Derrick Smith (D): We'll see if the third-party candidate who doesn't live in the district can use the backing of Democratic power players to edge out the indicted Democrat who used to be backed by Democratic power players.

MINNESOTA SIXTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Some Guy We've Never Heard Of Till Now (D) over Michele Bachmann (R): But I doubt it will return the former presidential hopeful to earth.

WISCONSIN FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Paul Ryan (R) over Robert Zerban (D): Playing it conservatively, Ryan is vying for reelection to his U.S. House seat even as he runs as Mitt's veep. Let's just say he'll have to resume his fight for the preservation of Judeo-Christian values as a congressman.

INDIANA U.S. SENATE SEAT: If Democratic Rep. Joe Donnelly retains his narrow lead over Richard Mourdock, does that mean it was something God intended to happen?

MISSOURI U.S. SENATE SEAT: Todd Akin (WTF?!) will suffer a legitimate defeat to incumbent Claire McCaskill (D).

REPUBLICANS OVER DEMOCRATS FOR CONTROL OF THE U.S. HOUSE: I don't know about you, but I'm getting a little weepy at the image of John Boehner returning as speaker.

DEMOCRATS OVER REPUBLICANS FOR CONTROL OF THE U.S. SENATE: Yet the GOP will continue to set the agenda for everything but majority leader Harry Reid's sizable mouth.

MARIJUANA REFORMERS OVER FEDERAL PROHIBITION: If pollsters are reading the tea leaves right, ballot initiatives to legalize recreational pot use will pass in Washington and Colorado, and perhaps Oregon as well. Then what'll the feds do?

CHRIS CHRISTIE OVER LOYALTY TO ANY REPUBLICANS NOT NAMED CHRIS CHRISTIE: Give the New Jersey governor a hurricane and he'll let it clear a path to Washington in 2016.

BARACK OBAMA OVER MITT ROMNEY: Romney may claim he's going to win Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio. But tomorrow he'll say something different. In contrast, people know they can count on Obama to promise what he intends while having no fucking idea how to get it done.

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