How close is the presidential race? | Bleader

Monday, November 5, 2012

How close is the presidential race?

Posted By on 11.05.12 at 11:26 AM

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Lauren Kaesberg, with her son Atticus, voting downtown Friday
"It's a tie game, and there's a loose ball," Neil Newhouse, a Mitt Romney campaign pollster, told the New York Times this weekend.

If that's the case, President Obama could simply send the Chicago Bears defense to Ohio to grab the ball and run it in for the winning TD.

But Newhouse's assessment is wishful thinking on his part—or, more likely, his attempt to persuade Romney supporters that things look better than they do, lest they give up and stay home. Newhouse is the guy who said, after certain Romney ads attacking Obama were proven bogus, "We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers."

The national popular vote is unquestionably close, according to almost every poll. Nate Silver, the New York Times polling expert, has Obama ahead by 1.9 percent. But presidents aren't elected by popular vote, of course. Silver has Obama's chance of winning the electoral college at 86 percent—up 12 percent from a week ago. It's still not a slam dunk for Obama; his lead in most swing states is narrow. But he has the lead and the ball with time expiring. All that remains is for the nation's fact-checkers to weigh in.

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