Indicators to Watch Out For | Bleader

Monday, February 1, 2010

Indicators to Watch Out For

Posted By on 02.01.10 at 12:52 PM

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Invictus at The Big Picture on the "best economic gauge you've never heard of":

The MA3 [the three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index] has stalled since hitting -0.54 in September, recording -0.76, -0.68, and now -0.61 since then. We’ve gotten the bungee bounce off the economic and market lows of almost one year ago. The question now — as I’ve been opining for quite some time — is to sustainability. We’re clearly faltering, with nary a green shoot in sight (witness the just-released Durable Goods orders and weekly Unemployment Claims, which were both weaker than expected). Lots of interesting numbers coming out over the next week, culminating with Friday’s jobs report.

Larry Summers is calling our current situation - one in five men between 25 and 54 unemployed - a "human recession." It's going to be a long, slow recovery.

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