In BP we trust | Bleader

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

In BP we trust

Posted By on 08.12.08 at 11:26 AM

Sign up for our newsletters Subscribe

The number crunchers at Baseball Prospectus offer some hope to Cubs fans alternating between optimism and dread at the thought of what "Cubbie occurrence" might derail the team this time around. BP's Clay Davenport is running a Monte Carlo simulation based on teams' actual performance to determine their odds of making it to the playoffs. The result assigns the Cubs a 78.39568 (out of 100) chance of winning the Central Division and a 96.74370 chance of making it to the playoffs as either the division champ or wild card team. BP thinks the Cubs have a better shot at the postseason than every other team except the Angels, who've been given a 99.79407 chance of winning the AL West, which they're running away with, and a 99.82178 chance of making the playoffs.  Even the Sox are still in the running if you buy the algorithms (and you should): they get a 65.79284 chance to take the AL Central and slightly better 68.14108 to make the playoffs. [h/t to Mike]

Tags: , , , ,


Subscribe to this thread:

Add a comment

More by Kate Schmidt

  • Do a Doubleday

    Do a Doubleday

    Ride the Red Line for a cross-town series featuring both the city’s baseball teams.
    • Jul 10, 2019
  • Lit recs for people in search of pleasure

    Lit recs for people in search of pleasure

    The current book obsessions of Reader deputy editor Kate Schmidt and Super Tasty producer-host Karen Yates
    • Mar 14, 2019
  • More »

Agenda Teaser

Lit & Lectures
October 22
Galleries & Museums
New Paradigms: #BlackGirlMagic Art Institute of Chicago
October 22

Tabbed Event Search

The Bleader Archive

Popular Stories