Thursday, September 22, 2011
Politics / Sports / Clout City / News No statistical link between basketball rims and crime around Uptown park
Posted by Mick Dumke on Thu, Sep 22, 2011 at 5:39 PM
- Andrea Bauer
- Broncho Billy playlot
Earlier this month about 50 people showed up to the community meeting for police beat 2311, demanding that police and 46th Ward alderman James Cappleman do more to deal with “gangbangers” they blamed for problems in their community.
The beat covers the chunk of Uptown from Montrose north to Lawrence and Broadway west to Clark. There have been a number of highly publicized shootings there this year, including several in broad daylight, and residents said they often encounter open drug dealing and loitering, even when they’re on their way to work in the morning.
They were looking for ways to fight back. Several people at the meeting discussed finding ways to crack down on lax landlords and store owners who allow loitering. A senior citizen suggested that the police conduct random searches of low-income buildings, but police politely noted that would be unconstitutional. One man wondered why there were so many police on the streets in Wrigleyville when they were needed in Uptown, and when Cappleman said he had no authority over police deployments, the man shook his head angrily.
A woman who lives near Truman College said the nearby blocks needed new lights because they had become a dark “dead zone” and she feared gangs were taking over. “My street should be called Black P. Stone Way,” she said.
Lieutenant Robert Stasch, leader of the district's tactical operations unit, encouraged the residents to communicate and work together. He also tried to put things into perspective, noting that while the shootings were a reason for concern, crime is far lower than it was a few years ago.
“This is the continuation of an ongoing gang dispute that’s been going on in this area literally for years,” he said. He added that police had arrested several gang leaders. “The investigations are ongoing.”
Such is the backdrop for Alderman Cappleman’s decision earlier this summer to remove the rims from a nearby park, Broncho Billy Playlot Park, on Magnolia just north of Montrose. The move has angered some neighbors and pleased others, as my colleague Kevin Warwick and I reported in this week’s Reader.
Our story has hardly ended the controversy. Since it came out, a number of people have posted comments informing us that the playlot and surrounding area are much more peaceful since the rims were torn down.
It’s true that, by most accounts, the park does seem to be quieter. Though several residents have written that it’s frequently “packed,” neighbors we spoke with—some of whom favored the rim removals and some of whom didn’t—told us it’s been used less. I’ve never seen more than a couple of people there on multiple warm-afternoon visits.
That’s par for the course, says Karen Clark, who has lived across the street from the park for 11 years. “It’s not only that kids used to play there—early in the evening you’d see fathers out there, and people getting their workouts in,” she says. “Now there’s nothing for the kids and teens to do.”
“I think it has helped,” says Carolyn Lewis, who lives about a block-and-a-half away and supports the rim removals. “There are fewer older people who aren’t supervising their children.”
Stockton elementary school shares grounds with the playlot, and principal Jill Besenjak has written an open letter arguing that the rims should be reinstalled. “Rather than taking down the nets at Broncho Billy,” she wrote, “we need to build awareness in the community of how to allow everyone to use the park for their enjoyment and its intended purposes.”
So the park could be half-full or half-empty, depending on your perspective.
Perhaps more significantly, there’s no hard evidence that removing the rims had any impact on crime in the surrounding neighborhood.
You can check out a table of the stats by clicking on this link, but here’s the gist: From June through the end of August, 75 violent and weapon-related crimes were reported to police in beat 2311, according to crime data posted on the city’s website. That’s one fewer than the number reported last summer.
In contrast, the violent crime count dropped significantly—from 96 to 76—between 2009 and 2010, though the rims were up the entire time.
One person was murdered in the beat this summer—the same as last year. No one was slain there in 2009.
Similarly, the total of all crimes, including things like thefts and public disturbances, fell by almost the same amount after the rims came down (14) as the year before, when the rims were up (13).
In fact, with the hoops out of action, several of the crimes troubling to neighbors—such as narcotics violations and assaults—saw increases. The year before, when kids could play ball there, drug crimes and assaults were down.
The bottom line: if there's a connection between the basketball hoops and neighborhood crime, the numbers don't show it.
As Lieutenant Stasch told us: “The calls we get for that park are very minimal.... Personally, I’m in favor of giving young people something to do.”
Comments (32)
Showing 1-32 of 32
Mick, you gave an analysis of beat 2311, which encompasses all of Sheridan Park in Uptown.
Did you do a before & after analysis of crime on the street itself, which is just a small portion of the beat?
Did you do a before & after analysis of broken bottles and condoms in Broncho Billy?
Did you do a before & after analysis of the need for fence repair in the back of the park, given that drug dealers break it a lot to escape from the police?
Did you observe kids using the park while school was in session, or different times of day, or different types of weather? (A proper analysis is more than just a drive pass the park one or two times.)
I'm a researcher who depends on the use of stats. I just hate it, however, when stats are misused to try to support a bias. When your bias shows through, your credibility sinks. Just say'in.
like
dislike
Anita, what are your professional credentials and what sort of research do you do?
I had no idea that removing basketball rims were a legitimate piece of a comprehensive plan to fight crime.
Anita:
Thanks for writing.
If you can apply your statistical expertise to show us how removing the rims has impacted crime on that street or that block, we would all be appreciative. I would also welcome any sort of analysis showing how the hoops were connected to the use of condoms.
Still, let's assume crime on that block has fallen this summer. That means that crime in the surrounding blocks has gone up, since the overall crime levels are about the same as before. Would that be a result of the rims coming down?
Thanks,
Mick
I wouldn't hold your breath for a response from "Anita" as that appears to be the drag queen persona of "DStratis," yet another booster associated with Uptown Update.
http://uptownavenger.blogspot.com/2008/03/…
http://www.youtube.com/user/DStratis
Mick, my point is that you manipulate stats to make your point. In the world of research, people with a bias get sloppy with their stats and you've gotten really sloppy. Deal with your bias and you'll find that you'll become a little more careful in the reporting of stats.
We both know it's impossible to use stats to prove something about public safety in so short of a time. The truth comes out in trends rather than blips of activity. I'm calling you out on your real intentions of trying to sensationalize something that really has little basis of any facts.
I'm not going to do your research. That's your job, but I will point out the obvious flaws to you when I see it. It's clear that you're trying to sensationalize a boring topic to get more readers. It worked, but you can't be proud of this piece of work. God, I hope not.
What prediction are you talking about? You stated earlier, "I wouldn't hold your breath for a response from Anita (bla bla bla)." Clearly, Anita responded.
FGFM said: (And as predicted, "Anita" fails to bring anything meaningful to the table.)
Sounds like one of FGFM's "compensated dates" describing him to the other "working girls" after the "date" is over.
"Honey, it was like a dick, only smaller."
"Clearly, Anita responded."
Not with anything meaningful. I'm been as critical of Dumke as anyone and even gave him a dirty look as he went into that meeting, but at least he brought a little more to the table than some anecdotal evidence and an appeal to authority, James.
*Sounds like one of FGFM's "compensated dates" describing him to the other "working girls" after the "date" is over.*
Tell "it" to "Irish Pirate."
"Absolutely".
"Irish Pirate", "FGFM's manhood makes "working girls" "Sniggle".*
"Sniggle" = snicker + giggle
"FGFM" is just an acronym for Santorum in ancient Sanskirt.
*"FGFM" is just an acronym for Santorum in ancient [sic] Sanskirt. [sic]*
As opposed to Modern Sanskrit, Dr. Kookie?
"Sans-skirt", it was the language of ancient working girls and much of your maternal lineage, FGFM. Although, I saw in an ancient history book that Grandma FGFM gave it to Joe McCarthy for free.
Now please accuse me of being Andrew Breitbart. You did that once before in an earlier post. Dumbass.
I'm just glad that the group home you live in has internet access so you can amuse yourself and others.
Anita challenges the validity of comparing the beat over time as opposed to the streets on the park. But the READER's approach is the proper one. We expect crime around the park itself to go down if gangs are not attracted to the park, but the problem is that the gangs just move elsewhere, so crime overall is not affected. The rim removal is effective at shifting the crime and litter but not reducing it. Meanwhile, no one can use the hoops there.
READER has compared trends, year on year. Narcotics arrests on the park block actually rose from 3 to 5 between 2010 and 2011. Excluding domestic violence, the block around the park had 22 crimes in 2009 and 2010, and 15 in 2011, but there was little change for the beat overall, as READER has shown. Crime shifted, so other people now face the problems that park-block residents faced.
The Reader then should be aware that such small numbers are not statistically relevant to report a difference. Like I said, the bias in reporting blinds the reporter. He only gets sloppy with stats in order to support the bias he has.
If indeed you claim that the result of removing the basketball hoops did result in just shifting the crime elsewhere, then there are 2 choices
1. Keep up the interventions to reduce crime.
2. Do nothing because any effort will just shift the crime elsewhere.
Gangs and wanna-be liberals who don't live in the area would prefer option 1.
Parents who are concerned about the ongoing gang recruitment in the play lot would go for option 2.
You are choosing to be blinded to the fact that these kids can still play basketball. The only difference is that they now walk a few blocks to Chase Park to play and basketball is supervised there. I understand gangs don't like supervised basketball but most parents do, at least ones who are concerned about gangs.
Excuse the confusion about the 2 options. Obviously, parents would want to keep up any effort to reduce crime. People not from the area want to do nothing.
"Now please accuse me of being Andrew Breitbart. You did that once before in an earlier post. Dumbass."
You are one stupid motherfucker, but Breitbart did accuse me of being Don Nowotny.
"The Reader then should be aware that such small numbers are not statistically relevant to report a difference."
Why not?
"Anita" has probably never attempted to play ball over at Chase, but I doubt that someone can just walk into the gym and start shooting hoops. I was told the last time I tried at my local park that the gym was fully booked by various groups and that there was no open hours. The Part District web site shows teen hours of Thursday between 8:00 and 9:30 PM. 18+ can pay $175 to play once or twice a week. And I don't think that they have any outdoor courts
There you go with your Oedipal projecting again.
As for Breitbart thinking you were Don Nowotny a quick google search shows you using Don's last name as part of a screen name. You two deserve each other.
Now go back to your Oedipal thoughts there fecal freak.
Dr. Kookie, you're right! And it was even better when John Fritchey DMed me and told me not to return his call.
Anita, reading the post might help you:
"The bottom line: if there's a connection between the basketball hoops and neighborhood crime, the numbers don't show it."
The final conclusion is that the number are deceptive if you are trying to use them to prove one way or another that the basketball hoops should or should not be in place.
The bottom line is that the 2 park signs that were posted in the park for many years which stated it's for children 12 & under is now going to be enforced.
The bottom line is that some people don't like to follow park rules.
The bottom line is that this park was heavily used for gang recruitment and now it was just made more difficult.
"The bottom line is that some people don't like to follow park rules. "
Like Patrick Henry, for example.
Uh, FGFM. Patrick Henry was never a gangbanger trying to recruit others to sell drugs. Nice try, though.
You All Are Some Funny People And I Respect Your Comments, But You All Are Missing The Point.
The rims should be re-installed and the COMMUNITY needs to stand up for One Another and embrace the LOVE that once flourished through out the City Streets Of Chicago, These Gangbangers are nothing but ''PUNKS'' with Guns and will not shoot you unless you show extreme Fear to them. I Do agree with noted comments that were made in direct with the point at hand to a degree of clarity, But the Chicago Police are to BLAME as seeing that Officers ride right pass these ''PUNKS'' on a daily bases and the majority of these ''PUNKS'' either have Records, Run-ins with local Beat Officers, & Are Known by Residents In The Community Who Turns A Blind Eye To Their Actions Because They Feel Threaten.
The Residents Are To BLAME Because They Put Their Trust In The Hands Of Their Local Government without any insight of a Genuine Promise of Protected Neighborhoods as Stated By The Alderman At Election Time, Most Of These ''Punks'' Come Right Off Of The Very Same Block That Has High Crime With The Added Visitors That Come From Various Parts Of The City And No One Has Took The Lead To Start Informing The Parents Of These Teenagers & Children Committing Crimes Against The Community And Its Inhabitants. If Talking To The Parents Does Not Help, Call The Police On The Parents & Then The State.
46th Ward alderman James Cappleman Should Be Replaced Or Slap Up-Side His Head By A Dose Of Reality And Get His Ass Out In His Ward And Start Foot-working.
Rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed rims should be re-installed.
Police beat 2311 Should Go Under Review Along With The Whole District & Chicago Police Department For Perjury Of Protect & Serve & Responding To Calls In A Timely Manner.
And Racism Does Play A Small Part In This Situation.
RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS RE-INSTALL THE RIMS.
AND THEIR IS NO statistical link between basketball rims and crime around Uptown park.
ITS YOUR LOCAL OUT OF TOUCH ALDERMAN & COMMUNITY LEADERS
Wes, I'm sure by this time you're aware that there were signs in the play lot stating that it was for children 12 and under. How does it get decided which rules to enforce and which to ignore?
I know the alderman made it an issue to get feedback from residents on development but I couldn't find anything where he wanted a vote on whether or not park rules should be enforced. Could you show me where that might be? I can't seem to find it anywhere.
"Patrick Henry was never a gangbanger trying to recruit others to sell drugs."
I'm sure that people like you said worse things about him.
"How does it get decided which rules to enforce and which to ignore?"
Puzzled Aldertroll.
It appears, however, that the alderman was able to decide that park rules should be enforced.
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